the question everyone asks
Every number below is a real probability from our CONE-1 engine — not an analyst's vibe, not a paid prediction, and graded nightly against the tape.
| Target | Touches it | Closes the year above it |
|---|---|---|
| $1.25 | 99.7% | 52.8% |
| $1.50 | 56.5% | 30.9% |
| $2.00 | 15.9% | 9.4% |
| $3.00 | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| $5.00 | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| $10.00 | <1% | <1% |
"Touch" = trades there at least once before year-end. "Close above" = still there on Dec 31. The difference between those two columns is where most crypto headlines quietly cheat.
How to read this: on Polymarket, people bet real money on yes/no questions like the ones below. The price of a YES share is the crowd's probability: if YES costs 84¢ (of a $1 payout), the market collectively believes there is about an 84% chance. Our model answers the exact same question a completely different way — from the measured behavior of XRP's own price history, with no opinions involved. When two independent methods land on the same number, that number deserves your trust more. When they split, one of them is mispriced — and we do not assume it is them. Every gap is logged, and when each question resolves, both sides of the disagreement get graded.
What price will XRP hit in October? · resolves 2026-11-01 · 11 days out
| Claim | The market says | Our model says | Do they agree? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.1¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.20 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.3¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.6¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.5¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.60 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.8¢) | 1.1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.40 in October? | 1.0% (YES costs 1.0¢) | 1.8% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.20 in October? | 1.4% (YES costs 1.4¢) | 2.1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.00 in October? | 2.2% (YES costs 2.2¢) | 3.5% | agree — about 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 in October? | 2.8% (YES costs 2.8¢) | 6.0% | agree — about 3 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.60 in October? | 13.0% (YES costs 13.0¢) | 10.8% | agree — about 2 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.40 in October? | 56.5% (YES costs 56.5¢) | — | price already got there this period — the bet is effectively settled, so the two numbers aren't comparable |
| Will XRP dip to $1.20 in October? | 28.5% (YES costs 28.5¢) | 22.9% | they disagree — our number is 6 points lower |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 in October? | 4.0% (YES costs 4.0¢) | 1.0% | agree — about 3 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.80 in October? | 1.7% (YES costs 1.7¢) | <1% | agree — about 2 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.60 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.7¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.40 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.1¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.20 in October? | <1% (YES costs 0.1¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
What price will XRP hit October 19-25? · resolves 2026-10-26 · 5 days out
| Claim | The market says | Our model says | Do they agree? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $2.00 October 19-25? | 1.5% (YES costs 1.5¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.90 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.5% (YES costs 1.5¢) | 1.2% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.5% (YES costs 1.5¢) | 1.8% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.70 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.6% (YES costs 1.6¢) | 2.9% | agree — about 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.60 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.8% (YES costs 1.8¢) | 5.4% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.50 October 19-25? | 6.0% (YES costs 6.0¢) | 9.9% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $1.40 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 40.0% (YES costs 40.0¢) | 29.1% | they disagree — our number is 11 points lower |
| Will XRP dip to $1.30 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 50.0% (YES costs 50.0¢) | 51.6% | agree — about 2 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $1.20 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 9.5% (YES costs 9.5¢) | 9.0% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP dip to $1.10 October 19-25? | 1.9% (YES costs 1.9¢) | 2.3% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 October 19-25? | 1.8% (YES costs 1.8¢) | <1% | agree — about 2 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.90 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.5% (YES costs 1.5¢) | <1% | agree — about 1 point apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.80 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.4% (YES costs 1.4¢) | <1% | agree — about 1 point apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.70 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 1.5% (YES costs 1.5¢) | <1% | agree — about 2 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.60 October 19-25? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | <1% (YES costs 0.3¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
What price will XRP hit in 2026? · resolves 2027-01-01 · 72 days out
| Claim | The market says | Our model says | Do they agree? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $8.00 by December 31, 2026? | <1% (YES costs 0.5¢) | <1% | agree — under 1 point apart |
| Will XRP reach $6.00 by December 31, 2026? · thin market — few bets, price may be stale | 2.1% (YES costs 2.1¢) | 5.5% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? | 1.7% (YES costs 1.7¢) | 6.0% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? | 1.8% (YES costs 1.8¢) | 6.3% | big disagreement — our number is 5 points higher (ours is about 3× theirs); one side is badly mispriced |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? | 3.1% (YES costs 3.1¢) | 6.5% | agree — about 3 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? | 3.1% (YES costs 3.1¢) | 6.9% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.60 by December 31, 2026? | 4.2% (YES costs 4.2¢) | 7.0% | agree — about 3 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? | 3.6% (YES costs 3.6¢) | 7.6% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? | 4.3% (YES costs 4.3¢) | 7.8% | agree — about 3 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? | 4.0% (YES costs 4.0¢) | 8.2% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | 5.3% (YES costs 5.3¢) | 9.0% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? | 5.5% (YES costs 5.5¢) | 9.2% | agree — about 4 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $1.20 by December 31, 2026? | 68.5% (YES costs 68.5¢) | — | price already got there this period — the bet is effectively settled, so the two numbers aren't comparable |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? | 30.0% (YES costs 30.0¢) | — | price already got there this period — the bet is effectively settled, so the two numbers aren't comparable |
| Will XRP dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026? | 10.0% (YES costs 10.0¢) | 4.1% | they disagree — our number is 6 points lower (theirs is about 2.4× ours) |
| Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026? | 5.0% (YES costs 5.0¢) | <1% | big disagreement — our number is 5 points lower (theirs is more than 10× ours); one side is badly mispriced |
| Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? | 1.9% (YES costs 1.9¢) | <1% | agree — about 2 points apart |
| Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? | 1.2% (YES costs 1.2¢) | <1% | agree — about 1 point apart |
Market prices from Polymarket's public API, refreshed hourly and logged to our database · our numbers are the same CONE-1 touch odds as everywhere on this site, measured on daily closing prices — brief intraday spikes don't show in daily closes, so our near-term touch odds run a little conservative · long-horizon odds are measured on ~2.7 years of history and inherit whatever that period was like · day-scale markets are excluded (a daily-resolution model cannot price an intraday game fairly).
The XRP Forecast publishes probability, not advice. Every figure is measured from the market's own record, published before the fact, and graded after — wrong sometimes, honest always. © 2026.