XRP / USD · live probabilistic forecast
A live forecast cone for XRP — with the odds of any price, by any date, measured from what this market has actually done. Every band is graded against the tape, nightly, in public.
| Horizon | Median | 68% band | 95% band | Up vs now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 day | 1.399 | 1.363 – 1.441 | 1.310 – 1.534 | 48% |
| +2 days | 1.398 | 1.345 – 1.457 | 1.261 – 1.615 | 47% |
| +1 week | 1.390 | 1.297 – 1.514 | 1.172 – 1.891 | 46% |
| +1 month | 1.358 | 1.188 – 1.645 | 1.027 – 3.383 | 41% |
| +3 months | 1.335 | 1.014 – 1.896 | 0.883 – 6.793 | 43% |
$1,000 buys 714 XRP right now. By December 31 the tape prices it: a 1-in-10 best case of $3843, a middle path of $936, and a 1-in-10 worst case of $650. That is a distribution, not a promise — price your own number →
XRP sits -61% below its 2025-07-22 high. Our tape holds 134 days near this depth, but not enough of them have a full year of aftermath to measure yet (0 so far) — and no base rate beats a fake one, so we print none. The full library →
The band, not the point. There's a 68% chance XRP closes next week between 1.297 and 1.514, and 95% it stays inside 1.172–1.891. Those aren't opinions — they're measurements, and we grade them every night.
Direction is nearly a coin flip. Up-vs-now runs ≈48–43% across horizons — whatever slight tilt exists is the market's own drift, not our imagination. Anyone quoting you a confident short-term direction is selling something. Want a specific target? Price it honestly →
XRP is up 0.16% at $1.4008 — inside the range we called, the kind of day the bands expect. Odds of $2-by-December sit at 30.0% (down 3.0 points today). On the ledger, exchanges saw 6.1M XRP arrive and 4.9M leave — net deposits: coins positioning to sell. Volatility runs 1.69× its quarterly norm. Direction remains a coin flip; the range remains ours. — the desk, 06:15Z
The feed: the legislation story is the loudest thing in XRP media right now — 5 headlines across 5 outlets in the last 24h. Latest: “Ripple CEO Urges: “Let’s Finish The Job” On CLARITY Act”
The tape: XRP is up 0.16% today (a fraction of a typical day's move), inside the range we called last night; on the ledger, exchanges saw a net 1M XRP arrive (coins positioning where they can be sold); $2-by-December odds down 3.0 points at 30.0%.
The desk's read: the tape moved today — we note what the feed was saying, and assume nothing about which caused which; the record will sort it out
“Loudest” is counted, not endorsed — headlines from the news sweep, grouped by story, tallied. Loud and true are different properties; this card only measures loud, then holds it against our own price, flow, and odds data. Refreshes with every sweep.
09-04 09:15Z ▼ 11M XRP (~$15M) moved INTO Binance from an unlabeled wallet — coins positioning where they can be sold.
09-04 09:06Z ▲ 11M XRP (~$15M) LEFT Bitfinex for an unlabeled wallet — self-custody, the accumulation pattern.
09-03 19:41Z ▼ 11M XRP (~$15M) moved INTO Bitso from an unlabeled wallet — coins positioning where they can be sold.
Movements of 5M+ XRP across verified exchange wallets, read from the ledger every two hours. Seven-day net: +30M XRP arriving at exchanges — the distribution side. Interpretation is mechanical, not psychic: deposits can sell, custody cannot. Dormant wallets are watched both ways: wakes crossing these walls, plus a daily signature sweep of the 1013 largest non-custodian wallets on the ledger.
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-09-03 XRP Ledger Gets BIS Test With 3-5 Second Data Publishing (Yellow.com) — Named institution (BIS) + specific test; but headline-only so unclear if new announcement — held: headline only
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-09-02 Goldman Sachs sold then rebought $87M in XRP, b... (Pluang) — Goldman's $87M reacquisition; institutional position via 13F filing — held: headline only
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-09-02 A Wall Street Leader Emptied Its XRP Stack; Then Bought The Dip. (DailyCoin) — $153M→$0→$87M Goldman 13F timeline; verifiable repricing by institution
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-09-02 XRP ETFs Attract $170 million Of Capital In 11 Days (Yahoo Finance) — $170M confirmed inflow in 11 days; specific capital flow into XRP ETFs — held: headline only
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-08-29 SEC Filing Lists ProShares XRP ETF and Ultra XRP ETF as Registered Fund Series (CoinGape) — XRP-specific SEC ETF registration, regulatory outcome — held: headline only
| Date | Event | In | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | CPI release (Aug data) | 6d | BLS schedule |
| 2026-09-15 | FOMC meeting begins (two-day) | 10d | Federal Reserve calendar |
| 2026-09-16 | FOMC decision + press conference | 11d | Federal Reserve calendar |
| 2026-10-01 | Ripple escrow unlock (monthly, 1st) | 26d | XRPL protocol schedule |
| 2026-10-14 | CPI release (Sep data) | 39d | BLS schedule |
Only events with official calendars appear here — a congressman's optimism is not a date. The Clarity Act floor vote joins this table the moment it is actually scheduled; until then it lives on the docket as a watch item.
METHOD — Powered by CONE-1, our fat-tail probability engine. It prices every question against the full recorded behavior of this market — crashes, face-melting rallies and all — instead of bell-curve textbook math or analyst vibes. We publish every forecast before the fact and grade it after: the record is the methodology's proof.
The XRP Forecast publishes probability, not advice. Every figure is measured from the market's own record, published before the fact, and graded after — wrong sometimes, honest always. © 2026.