XRP is up 0.41% at $1.4042, inside the range we called last night. Volatility runs 1.69× its quarterly norm. Yesterday the ledger saw 6.1M XRP deposited to exchanges and 4.9M withdrawn — net sell-side positioning. Direction remains a coin flip; the range remains ours.
| Target | Touch odds | Since yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| $1.50 | 77.4% | ▼ 7.7 pt |
| $2.00 | 30.5% | ▼ 2.5 pt |
| $5.00 | 11.7% | ▼ 0.1 pt |
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-09-03 XRP Ledger Gets BIS Test With 3-5 Second Data Publishing (Yellow.com) — Named institution (BIS) + specific test; but headline-only so unclear if new announcement — held: headline only
Clarity Act: the market pays 14% for passage this year · 4 gates remain · 0 days to the recess. Latest official action (2026-08-08): Cloture motion on the motion to proceed to the measure presented in Senate. (CR S4557) Full tracker →
When one buyer pays a new price, every XRP in existence is instantly revalued at it — so a dollar of net buying moves XRP's total market value by far more than a dollar. We measure that ratio daily: over the last 90 days, the typical day ran about 224-to-1 — a million dollars of net buying moved the market cap by roughly $224 million. At that rate, $10 XRP would take about $2.4 billion of fresh buying — not the $540 billion the market-cap myth implies. It cuts both ways: the same leverage makes small selling waves just as violent. How it works, measured daily →
One number per landmark: the chance price actually reaches it at some point in the next seven days, judged from similar days in XRP's history. The last column answers a different question — whether the landmark itself matters, or whether that probability is just what any move of that size costs.
| Landmark | Price | How far away | Chance in the next 7 days | Does the landmark itself matter? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day high | $1.520 | 8.3% above | 14% (from 79 similar days) | No — price reached it LESS often than the 23% baseline for a move that size. It is not pulling price toward it. |
| 30-day midpoint | $1.257 | 10.5% below | 29% (from 17 similar days) | Not enough similar days yet to judge fairly. |
| 30-day low | $0.994 | 29.2% below | 0% (from 13 similar days) | Not enough similar days yet to judge fairly. |
| nearest round number | $1.400 | 0.3% below | 74% (from 203 similar days) | Not really — a move that size happens in 79% of weeks regardless. The landmark is just a line. |
“Similar days” = past days when this same landmark sat about this far from the price — like compared with like. The 7-day window is rolling and the table refreshes with every price update. No level was picked by a human; each is a fixed formula, which is why we are allowed to grade them.
The desk calls next week inside 1.300 – 1.518 at 2-in-3 odds; tonight's close is called 1.360–1.439. Current streak: 0 nights inside · 49 graded · the ledger →
The XRP Forecast publishes probability, not advice. Every figure is measured from the market's own record, published before the fact, and graded after — wrong sometimes, honest always. © 2026.