XRP is down 0.25% at $1.3325, inside the range we called last night. Volatility runs 0.61× its quarterly norm. Yesterday the ledger saw 0.4M XRP deposited to exchanges and 0.0M withdrawn — net sell-side positioning. Direction remains a coin flip; the range remains ours.
| Target | Touch odds | Since yesterday |
|---|---|---|
| $1.50 | 56.5% | ▲ 5.9 pt |
| $2.00 | 15.9% | ▲ 1.6 pt |
| $5.00 | 5.9% | ▼ 0.1 pt |
MOVES THE ODDS 2026-10-20 $1.62 Trillion German Banking Giant Launches XRP Trading (DailyCoin) — Sparkassen/DekaBank launch XRP trading; specific details but sourced via crypto media
Clarity Act: the market pays 5% for passage this year · 4 gates remain · 0 days to the recess. Latest official action (2026-09-15): Motion by Senator Tillis to reconsider the vote by which cloture on the motion to proceed to the measure was n… Full tracker →
When one buyer pays a new price, every XRP in existence is instantly revalued at it — so a dollar of net buying moves XRP's total market value by far more than a dollar. We measure that ratio daily: over the last 90 days, the typical day ran about 133-to-1 — a million dollars of net buying moved the market cap by roughly $133 million. At that rate, $10 XRP would take about $4.1 billion of fresh buying — not the $540 billion the market-cap myth implies. It cuts both ways: the same leverage makes small selling waves just as violent. How it works, measured daily →
One number per landmark: the chance price actually reaches it at some point in the next seven days, judged from similar days in XRP's history. The last column answers a different question — whether the landmark itself matters, or whether that probability is just what any move of that size costs.
| Landmark | Price | How far away | Chance in the next 7 days | Does the landmark itself matter? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day high | $1.573 | 18.0% above | 6% (from 70 similar days) | Not really — a move that size happens in 9% of weeks regardless. The landmark is just a line. |
| 30-day midpoint | $1.433 | 7.6% above | 26% (from 89 similar days) | Not really — a move that size happens in 26% of weeks regardless. The landmark is just a line. |
| 30-day low | $1.294 | 2.9% below | 40% (from 112 similar days) | No — price reached it LESS often than the 55% baseline for a move that size. It is not pulling price toward it. |
| nearest round number | $1.300 | 2.4% below | 66% (from 170 similar days) | Mildly — price reached it slightly more often than the 58% baseline for a move that size. |
“Similar days” = past days when this same landmark sat about this far from the price — like compared with like. The 7-day window is rolling and the table refreshes with every price update. No level was picked by a human; each is a fixed formula, which is why we are allowed to grade them.
The desk calls next week inside 1.235 – 1.442 at 2-in-3 odds; tonight's close is called 1.299–1.373. Current streak: 8 nights inside · 95 graded · the ledger →
The XRP Forecast publishes probability, not advice. Every figure is measured from the market's own record, published before the fact, and graded after — wrong sometimes, honest always. © 2026.